just procrastinating

Friday, February 06, 2004

Bonds (not Barry)
Interesting factoid about GE from Bill Gross the bond guy at Pimco, which he extrapolates to the market at large:
In 1980, 92% of its (GE) reported profits came from its manufacturing subsidiaries. In 2003, nearly 50% of earnings were supplied by financing subsidiaries highly dependent on leverage, the cost of that leverage, and its ability to maneuver through the swaps market by turning long-term rates into cheap 1% + short term financing.
He is trying to make the point that we have quickly moved from a manufacturing to a service and now a finance-based economy. And because of the high rate of total credit market debt to GDP, he suggests that at some point will be some sort of reckoning, a "high noon" where lenders say "no mas". I am not entirely convinced that we need be so pessimistic, but there has to be something to this chart. The whole article is here.

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